Last Updated on October 10, 2022 by Justin Clifton
As someone that has been working remotely for my entire career, I felt like I had a huge head start when the COVID-19 pandemic struck our world. It has been gut wrenching to see so many friends and family members either lose their jobs or, out of necessity, be forced to work in conditions that simply aren’t safe. I truly feel very sorry for the massive amount of people that have been damaged by this virus physically, psychologically, and economically. But on the other hand, there’s a huge sense of relief on my part because I personally haven’t been adversely affected by this virus (so far at least). My freelance digital marketing and web analytics business has actually been booming ever since early March. As far as I know, I haven’t gotten the virus. And if I did get the virus, then I was totally asymptomatic because I haven’t been sick since the outbreak began. And my diversified stock portfolio has been doing pretty well. Partially because I’ve been investing with the indefinitely long pandemic in mind ever since it struck. I’ve been trying to go mainly for stocks where either the pandemic is a non-issue, or it’s actually beneficial to the company (think Amazon, Shopify, Microsoft, etc).
When I was flying down to Mexico City back in January of this year, I was intending to stay in Mexico for about 6 months. Just like I had done last year. I clearly didn’t know what was around the corner. About a week later, I heard the first news of COVID-19. By early March, I was on a plane back to the US. As the months went by in the US and more things shut down, I was seeing how remote work was shifting from a nice privilege to one of the few ways to safely make a living. So was it just coincidence that I got into remote work about 4 years before it was forced upon the masses? Well, not really. What’s interesting about this whole situation is it has rapidly accelerated a lot of trends which were already happening. The gig economy in which companies hire more independent contractors for specific tasks and less full time employees for sweeping responsibilities. Businesses going online to stay competitive. People working and hiring remotely. People learning remotely. Ecommerce. Video streaming. Gaming. The growth of tech companies in general. All I’m trying to say is these were trends prior to the pandemic. That’s one of the main reasons why I got into remote work 4 years ago. Beyond that I just wanted the ability to work while traveling or spend more time with family while working from my tiny hometown in West Texas. Then when the pandemic unexpectedly hit, those pre-existing trends just began to accelerate. When the pandemic eventually does blow over, will these changes of doing more things remotely stick? I don’t think we’ll keep being remote at this full-blown level, but it’s also doubtful that we’ll completely go back to business as usual. I think remote work has taken a huge step up and most of those gains will stick. Going into the future, our lives and work will become increasingly online. Pandemic or no pandemic.
I’ve also been thinking a lot about the connection between the stock market and the economy at large during these times. Many people are a bit surprised to see that the stock market is not lining up with the economic realities of ordinary Americans. One obvious factor is the historical support the Fed gave to prop up the markets. But I think it goes deeper than that. Were ordinary people really doing that much better when the stock market was booming the past few years? Is the assumption that the stock market even operates on the same wavelength as the ordinary American even correct? First of all, only about a half of Americans even own stock. Second, I don’t think the economy was really that great for ordinary Americans pre-crisis if so many people and small American businesses go under after a month or two when hard times strike. Living paycheck to paycheck, as so many ordinary Americans do, doesn’t sound like a thriving economy for those people to me. And sure, some of those people live that way due to poor financial decisions. But when it’s so systemic, it’s hard to say that it just boils down to bad personal decisions for everyone.
The way I see it, the America of the top 50% and the bottom 50% are like two different societies. A lot of trouble can hit the bottom 50% without having a significant impact on the top 50%. Likewise, the top 50% can receive some incredible windfalls that never significantly trickle down to the bottom 50%. Due to this crisis, some major shifting is going on between who comprises the top and who comprises the bottom. Retail, travel, restaurants, and many other industries are getting rocked hard. On the other hand, ecommerce, cloud computing, streaming, gaming, biotech, and many other industries are seeing growth. And while the economy as a whole probably won’t reach pre-crisis levels anytime soon. Certain COVID-19 resistant sectors of the economy will continue to thrive and grow. It’s entirely possible that the stock market tanks again. It’s also possible that the 34% drop we saw initially in the S&P 500 was the worst of it. At the end of the day, it’s not logical for someone in the lower part of the bottom 50% to say, “Well, I was laid off from my retail job along with many other co-workers, so the stock market shouldn’t be going up.” What if the economy at large is just adapting despite those job losses. So now people who still have jobs are just buying the exact same retail goods online instead, boosting revenue for some other company. And on the flipside, many of those workers saw virtually no difference in their wages while their company posted huge profits over the years. During good times, ordinary workers see almost no benefits. During bad times, many workers get laid off by corporation A which failed, then it gets a bailout to stay afloat if it’s big enough. And some of the most economically successful corporations have been working hard to reduce/eliminate their ordinary bottom 50% jobs over the years anyways (self checkout at Walmart, robots in Amazon warehouses, etc). Long story short, there isn’t a significant connection between the well-being of the stock market at large and the economic well-being of the ordinary American. Most of their business comes from the top 50% anyway. For the foreseeable future, we’re going to have the people who can make a living online stay in the top 50% or enter it. And those who cannot reskill or do not want to reskill for a remote workforce will live off of government subsidies (while they last), live off of savings, or take on dangerous essential work roles. Barring a major breakthrough, the future looks bleak for this group of people and many from this group will stay in or sink to the bottom 50%.
My biggest takeaway from all of this is there has never been a better time to learn remote skills and apply for remote jobs. More employers are open to the idea than ever before. And the advantages of location independence and no commute are really hard to beat. At the rate I’m going, I’ll probably never work a traditional in-person job in my life. It would just be a step down. Especially considering the current circumstances. Thanks for reading and take care!
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